http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2011/09/islamization-of-moscow.html

> Quantitative information is often an excellent way to generate “free information” from theoretical models. The figure above is the primary result of the paper. Basically Arbesman took a data set which was laying around which measured the lengths of various empires (N = 41), and showed that the rise and fall of these political entities tends to follow an exponential distribution: e^−λt . This is an incredibly elegant summation of what we know qualitatively: some empires last a long time, but most do not.
>
> Interestingly the mean length of an empire is 220 years.

> One of the interesting points about the exponential distribution is that it implies that the the duration of an empire at any given moment can’t tell you the probability that it’s going to collapse in the near future. The distribution is “memoryless.” In other words, the likelihood of doom striking isn’t greater as time passes. This seems somewhat counterintuitive. After all doesn’t the cohesion and elan of the a ruling caste of a given empire wane as the society slowly lose its vital force? Hasn’t the author read Spengler! Arbesman admits that there are more complex equations which can describe the distribution more precisely, but the exponential formula has only one parameter, so it’s quite parsimonious. But even if we have a first approximation we don’t have a total description.

Generally this is true.

However, I’ve never had any problem staying at Japanese hotels, whether they be business hotels or onsen resorts. Also, the onsens (hot springs) are used to gaijin as they are more into onsens than the Japanese themselves. Once you learn and get used to the system, life in Japan is actually not that bad for gaijin such as myself.

You can live in Japan either on business or marriage residence permit (I’ve had both). But you have to register at the city office and renew the residence permit every year. Getting a business residence permit is not that difficult. You have to set up a yugen-gaisha (registered company) and fund it with at least 3 million yen (about US$40,000) in a Japanese bank account.

Yes, Korea is much worse than Japan in this respect. However, South Korea does allow guest workers (Japan does not) and something like nearly half of all the kids growing up in the rural areas are mixed race, as a result of marriage between Korean men and other Asian women (Philippines, Thai, Vietnam). This will certainly change Korean society over the next 20 years.

Korea is the one of the few countries in the world that does not allow the formation of “Chinatowns”. They have a law that no two Chinese-owned businesses can be closer than X meters to each other (I think X is like 300 meters). Even Japan has chinatowns (chukagai) in Yokohama, Kobe, and Nagasaki.

Yes, I know the rest of the world is much more racist than the U.S. Its called tribalism and its very fashionable. Racism is a part of tribalism. The rest of the world (including western Europe) is tribal with a capital “T”.

While in Japan, I got used to talking about different peoples and their characteristics in a manner that would be considered racist here in the U.S. 10th century Arab scholars are quite entertaining in their descriptions of different peoples and their characteristics.

Its just the way it is (outside the U.S.).

There is an element of the conservative blogosphere that is full of dire warnings about how the Muslims are about to take over Europe and that the UK, especially London, is ground zero for this. An example of this is the “Gates of Vienna” blog (http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com). Mark Steyn’s book “America Alone” was also about this theme. Have the experiences of your recent travels to the UK generally backed this theme?

What about Russia? Everything I’ve read about Russia says that they are in a demographic “death spiral” and that outside of major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, the countryside is reverting back to 18th century standards and is slowly depopulating. Have you found this to be the case?

What about the story that the majority of the recruits in the Russian military will be Muslim by 2015? Also, I’ve heard that Russia has something like 8 million Turkish guest workers (just like Germany) and that Russia’s economy would collapse without them because they no longer have enough young people of their own to do all of the work? Is there truth to any of this stuff?

From what I’ve heard, Blair really did a lot of damage. What are you doing in Peckham? I heard the place is mostly Muslim and African immigrants these days and is not safe.

Heaven is where:

The police are British
The mechanics are German
The cooks are French
The lovers are Italian
The teenagers are Japanese
The movie makers are American
The musicians are Russian
The women are Swedish
And the whole thing is organized by the Swiss;

Hell is where:

The police are German
The mechanics are French
The cooks are British
The lovers are Swiss
The teenagers are American
The movie makers are Japanese
The musicians are Swedish
The women are Russian
And the whole thing is organized by the Italians…

“International grain prices have risen sharply in recent months on the back of export
restrictions in Russia and the Ukraine, coupled with lower-than-expected yields as a result of
adverse weather conditions in the United States. Furthermore, dry weather in Argentina, and
more recently, heavy rainfall and flooding across eastern Australia are driving markets further
upwards.

• International wheat prices are around 75% higher than six months ago whilst global maize
prices are around 55% higher than six months ago.

• Sugar has reached a 30 year high. Soya beans prices have increased by around 40% in the
past 6 months.

• Near term wheat futures prices are above those of the previous high in February 20081
suggesting that prices are expected to remain high. However, for November delivery, UK
Liffe futures are lower in the expectation of increased global supply.”

I was lucky in that I was staying just a short walk away from Peckham Rye Street, which is the High Street in Pekham. Peckham is a rough scrabble, very ethnic area of London, and that means that it has a good 99p shop and a large LIDL. LIDL is fantastic – it is a German supermarket that sells off brands and continental brands; often at a fraction of the price of UK food. And the stuffis really good – some of it gourmet quality. The 99p store chain has stuff you really want to buy, like cokes, tinned tuna, chocolate and hygeine supplies. The stuff is good quality and it is literally a third to a fourth the price of Boots, Sainsburys, Tesco, Asda, etc. I cannot do without Coca Cola and it is incredibly expensive in the UK – about $3.00 for a 250 mL bottle. The 99p store would get these flats of cans of cokes in every once and awhile and I be fighting tooth and nail and getting elbowed by these ample-sized black women.

The99p places with best supply andlargest selection tend to be in poor neighborhoods. It is also a lot easier to get access to the dustbbins at the various food veues, providing you have a skip key.

My flatmate insisted on eating real food – the kind you cook yourself from “staples” – and the prices for things like butter have gone through the roof. When you eat packaged crap, you are to some extent, eating food at last years’ prices. Unlike petrol, downstream processed food doesn’t seem to go up in price as quickly in response to commodities supply fluctuations. I love the UK “ready meals,” which we don’thave here in the US, and I could not afford to eat them. Take away was impossible. I confined what little dining out I did to a place called the Stockpot on Old Compton Street and on Panton Street: http://www.london-eating.co.uk/4361.htm. I mention this place by name because it is an incredible value. The food is basic fare, the sercvice is good and the cost is 5 quid for a full meal. My favorite pub on the planet is Compton’s, which is just down the street from The Stockpot. And of course, Soho is full of wicked, wicked places to squander time and enjoy life. A couple times, as the sun was rising, I’ve seen Rupert Everett looking much the worse for wear, apparently headed home after a long night out. And I feel very sure I’ve spotted Dorian Gray on more than one occassion…;-)

I really miss London! — Mike Darwin